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Secondary Phase · Graduated CLOB
Predictions · Crypto · breaking
CR
Will the #1 trader on the final PnL (Gain) leaderboard have an open BTC-PERP position when the competition closes?
Closes Wed, 11 Nov 2026 19:07:00 GMT
Yes
0.0%
No
100.0%
Event intelligence
AI brief · cited evidenceThis market asks whether the #1 trader on the final Gain leaderboard held an open BTC-PERP position when the competition closed. The market closed on 2026-11-11 at 19:07 UTC with status 'closed' and probability 0. Resolution depends strictly on whether an active LONG or SHORT BTC-PERP position was displayed for that trader at the exact expiration timestamp. The order book shows minimal activity (2 trades, 2 wallets, $4 volume), suggesting no significant position was held by the top trader at close.
What supports YES
The available evidence does not establish a case for this side.
What supports NO
- The market is already closed (closesAt 2026-11-11T19:07:00.000Z, status closed) and the final leaderboard is fixed. If the #1 trader did not hold an active BTC-PERP position at that exact moment, the market resolves NO. The rules require an active position displayed under their name at expiration; absence of that position results in NO.
- Current book shows a last trade at 0.5033 with best bid 0.453 and best ask 0.5537, indicating very thin liquidity (volumeUsd 4). With only 2 trades and 2 wallets, it is highly probable the #1 trader had no open BTC-PERP position at close, leading to a NO resolution per the issuer criteria.
What to watch
- The exact leaderboard snapshot and position data at 2026-11-11T19:07:00.000Z are not provided in the evidence. Without the primary resolution source or exchange records confirming the #1 trader's positions, the final outcome cannot be definitively verified from the supplied data alone.
Research interpretation, not an independently calibrated forecast. Quotes, issuer criteria, and related reporting are separate evidence sources. Updated Wed, 11 Nov 2026 21:25:39 GMT.
Panta has no compatible probability history for this event yet. Momentum, RSI, and historical volatility remain unavailable.
Market structure & technical measures
Observed positioning and execution conditions. Missing history stays unavailable.
- Time to close
- 0h
- Market volume
- 4USD
- Market uncertainty
- 0/1
- YES / NO price sum
- 100¢
- Quoted spread
- 10.1¢
- Bid / ask depth imbalance
- 0.7%
- Recent trades sampled
- 2
Remaining time until trading closes, not necessarily final settlement.
Cumulative provider-reported volume, not 24-hour volume or available liquidity.
Binary entropy of the quoted YES price: 1 at 50/50 and 0 at 0/100. Not confidence in an outcome.
Indicative combined quote cost. Fees and execution slippage are excluded; this is not an arbitrage signal.
Best ask minus best bid. An order-book measure; unavailable for native bonding-curve markets.
Dollar depth within 5¢ of best prices. Positive means more resting bids; not a forecast.
Panta catalog tape, at most 200 trades. Not a full-day trade count.
Other outcomes in this event
Will the top 3 of the Leaderboard of the NectarFi x Panta trading competition be in the green by end of week 3?100.0%Will a new trader break into the top 3 of the Leaderboard of the NectarFi x Panta trading competition by the end of week 3?100.0%Will total trading volume in the Panta x NectarFi trading competition cross $200,000 by the end of week 2?100.0%Will NectarFi user zuby (@NzubeEzudo on X) crack the top 5 of the Leaderboard in the NectarFi x Panta trading competition at the end of week 1?100.0%Will exactly 4 traders cross the $100,000 threshold on the final volume leaderboard?50.7%Will raax finish on the PnL leader board with a positive percentage ?50.3%Will @PantaHQ publish a recap post with the final statistics (number of traders or total trading volume) of the Panta x NectarFi Trading Competition by November 20, 2026, 23:59 WAT?50.3%
How this market resolves
Resolve YES, if the trader in the #1 spot on the final "By gain" leaderboard has an active BTC-PERP position (either LONG or SHORT) displayed under their name at the exact moment the competition expires. Else resolve NO.