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Secondary Phase · Graduated CLOB
Predictions · Crypto · breaking
CR
Will the #1 trader on the final volume leaderboard have an open position when the competition ends?
Closes Wed, 11 Nov 2026 23:59:00 GMT
Yes
50.2%
No
49.8%
Event intelligence
AI brief · cited evidenceThis market asks whether the #1 trader on the final volume leaderboard will have an open position when the competition ends. The current probability is 50.18% with a closing time of 2026-11-11T23:59:00.000Z. Resolution requires observing the leaderboard at the exact closing moment; if the top trader has at least one active open position, it resolves YES, otherwise NO. The market has low volume ($5.10) and a wide spread (10.04%), suggesting limited capital commitment and high price volatility potential.
What supports YES
- The market will resolve YES if the trader in the #1 position on the volume leaderboard has at least one active open position displayed under their name at the exact moment the competition closes (2026-11-11T23:59:00.000Z). The technical data shows a last trade at 0.5018, reflecting a near-balanced market, but the outcome hinges on the leaderboard's state at the deadline. If the top trader maintains an open position through the closing timestamp, the condition is satisfied regardless of subsequent market movements.
What supports NO
- The market will resolve NO if the trader holding the #1 position on the volume leaderboard at the exact moment of competition close has zero active open positions displayed under their name. The technical data shows a bid-ask spread of 0.1004 with a last trade at 0.5018, indicating thin liquidity and high uncertainty, but the resolution depends strictly on the absence of any open position for the top-ranked trader at the closing timestamp of 2026-11-11T23:59:00.000Z.
What to watch
- Watch for the exact leaderboard ranking and position status at 2026-11-11T23:59:00.000Z. The rules require verification of an active open position under the #1 trader's name at that precise moment. Any discrepancy in ranking due to late volume surges or position closures near the deadline could alter the outcome. The technical data shows only 3 trades and 3 wallets, indicating sparse activity and potential for rapid shifts in leaderboard positions.
- Monitor the bid-ask spread and volume leading up to the deadline. The current spread of 0.1004 and low volume ($5.10) suggest that price movements may not reflect true trader sentiment. A narrowing spread or increased volume could signal stronger conviction, but the market price alone does not confirm whether the top trader holds an open position. Watch for any last-minute trades or position adjustments in the final hour before close.
Research interpretation, not an independently calibrated forecast. Quotes, issuer criteria, and related reporting are separate evidence sources. Updated Wed, 11 Nov 2026 21:25:53 GMT.
Panta has no compatible probability history for this event yet. Momentum, RSI, and historical volatility remain unavailable.
Market structure & technical measures
Observed positioning and execution conditions. Missing history stays unavailable.
- Time to close
- 2.6h
- Market volume
- 5.1USD
- Market uncertainty
- 1/1
- YES / NO price sum
- 100¢
- Quoted spread
- 10¢
- Bid / ask depth imbalance
- 0.4%
- Recent trades sampled
- 3
Remaining time until trading closes, not necessarily final settlement.
Cumulative provider-reported volume, not 24-hour volume or available liquidity.
Binary entropy of the quoted YES price: 1 at 50/50 and 0 at 0/100. Not confidence in an outcome.
Indicative combined quote cost. Fees and execution slippage are excluded; this is not an arbitrage signal.
Best ask minus best bid. An order-book measure; unavailable for native bonding-curve markets.
Dollar depth within 5¢ of best prices. Positive means more resting bids; not a forecast.
Panta catalog tape, at most 200 trades. Not a full-day trade count.
Other outcomes in this event
Will the top 3 of the Leaderboard of the NectarFi x Panta trading competition be in the green by end of week 3?100.0%Will a new trader break into the top 3 of the Leaderboard of the NectarFi x Panta trading competition by the end of week 3?100.0%Will total trading volume in the Panta x NectarFi trading competition cross $200,000 by the end of week 2?100.0%Will NectarFi user zuby (@NzubeEzudo on X) crack the top 5 of the Leaderboard in the NectarFi x Panta trading competition at the end of week 1?100.0%Will exactly 4 traders cross the $100,000 threshold on the final volume leaderboard?50.7%Will raax finish on the PnL leader board with a positive percentage ?50.3%Will @PantaHQ publish a recap post with the final statistics (number of traders or total trading volume) of the Panta x NectarFi Trading Competition by November 20, 2026, 23:59 WAT?50.3%
How this market resolves
Resolve YES, if the trader in the 1st position on the "By volume" leaderboard has at least one active open position displayed under their name at the exact moment the competition closes. Else resolve NO.