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Primary Phase · Bonding Curve AMM
Predictions · Crypto · breaking
CR
Will the trader who finishes exactly in 4th place by volume have a positive percentage gain?
Closes Wed, 11 Nov 2026 23:59:00 GMT
Yes
50.0%
No
50.0%
Event intelligence
AI brief · cited evidenceThis market asks whether the trader finishing exactly 4th by volume has a positive percentage gain when the competition timer expires. The resolution criteria require a gain strictly greater than 0.00% for YES; 0.00% or negative yields NO. Current market probability is 50.0%, with best bid 0.4501 and best ask 0.5501. No leaderboard data, volume rankings, or historical gain figures are available in the evidence, making it impossible to determine the outcome from the supplied information.
What supports YES
The available evidence does not establish a case for this side.
What supports NO
The available evidence does not establish a case for this side.
What to watch
- Monitor the market probability and order book depth as the closing time approaches. The market is currently balanced at 50.0% with a 10.0% spread, indicating no directional consensus. Any significant shift in probability or a narrowing spread may signal new information about the likely outcome.
Research interpretation, not an independently calibrated forecast. Quotes, issuer criteria, and related reporting are separate evidence sources. Updated Tue, 10 Nov 2026 20:18:34 GMT.
Panta has no compatible probability history for this event yet. Momentum, RSI, and historical volatility remain unavailable.
Market structure & technical measures
Observed positioning and execution conditions. Missing history stays unavailable.
- Time to close
- 27.7h
- Market volume
- 315.5USD
- Market uncertainty
- 1/1
- YES / NO price sum
- 100¢
- Quoted spread
- 10¢
- Bid / ask depth imbalance
- 0%
- Recent trades sampled
- 11
Remaining time until trading closes, not necessarily final settlement.
Cumulative provider-reported volume, not 24-hour volume or available liquidity.
Binary entropy of the quoted YES price: 1 at 50/50 and 0 at 0/100. Not confidence in an outcome.
Indicative combined quote cost. Fees and execution slippage are excluded; this is not an arbitrage signal.
Best ask minus best bid. An order-book measure; unavailable for native bonding-curve markets.
Dollar depth within 5¢ of best prices. Positive means more resting bids; not a forecast.
Panta catalog tape, at most 200 trades. Not a full-day trade count.
Other outcomes in this event
Will the top 3 of the Leaderboard of the NectarFi x Panta trading competition be in the green by end of week 3?100.0%Will a new trader break into the top 3 of the Leaderboard of the NectarFi x Panta trading competition by the end of week 3?100.0%Will total trading volume in the Panta x NectarFi trading competition cross $200,000 by the end of week 2?100.0%Will NectarFi user zuby (@NzubeEzudo on X) crack the top 5 of the Leaderboard in the NectarFi x Panta trading competition at the end of week 1?100.0%Will exactly 4 traders cross the $100,000 threshold on the final volume leaderboard?50.7%Will Unnamedcodes reach $200,000 in trading volume by the end of the Panta × NectarFi Trading Competition?50.2%Will at least 8 new markets linked to the Panta x NectarFi Trading Competition be created on Panta between 9 November 2026 00:59 WAT and 12 November 2026 00:59 WAT?50.2%
How this market resolves
Resolve YES, if Resolves to YES if the trader in the #4 spot on the final "By volume" leaderboard has a gain strictly greater than 0.00% when the competition timer expires. Resolves to NO if their gain is 0.00% or negative.. Else resolve NO.