Predictions · Finance · breaking
Closes Sat, 31 Oct 2026 22:59:00 GMT
Yes
100.0%
No
0.0%
This market asks whether a new trader breaks into the top 3 of the NectarFi x Panta leaderboard by 11:59 PM WAT on Saturday, October 31, 2026. The issuer defines a YES resolution only if at least one of the current top 3 users (zuby, lomehn, osaz) is displaced by someone outside that trio. The market is marked closed with a stated probability of 1, yet the technical feed shows the last trade occurred on October 29, 2026, with a bid/ask spread of 0.10 and a last trade price of 0.5001. No primary resolution source or official leaderboard update is provided in the evidence, leaving the actual top
The available evidence does not establish a case for this side.
The available evidence does not establish a case for this side.
Research interpretation, not an independently calibrated forecast. Quotes, issuer criteria, and related reporting are separate evidence sources. Updated Tue, 10 Nov 2026 20:18:04 GMT.
Panta has no compatible probability history for this event yet. Momentum, RSI, and historical volatility remain unavailable.
Observed positioning and execution conditions. Missing history stays unavailable.
Remaining time until trading closes, not necessarily final settlement.
Cumulative provider-reported volume, not 24-hour volume or available liquidity.
Binary entropy of the quoted YES price: 1 at 50/50 and 0 at 0/100. Not confidence in an outcome.
Indicative combined quote cost. Fees and execution slippage are excluded; this is not an arbitrage signal.
Best ask minus best bid. An order-book measure; unavailable for native bonding-curve markets.
Dollar depth within 5¢ of best prices. Positive means more resting bids; not a forecast.
Panta catalog tape, at most 200 trades. Not a full-day trade count.
Resolve YES, if at least one of the current top 3 NectarFi users (zuby, lomehn, and osaz) is replaced by another user not currently in the top 3 by 11:59 PM WAT on Saturday October 31, 2026. See @PantaHQ and @Nectar_Finance on X for announcements.. Else resolve NO.
Distinct trader addresses in the fetched tape; does not establish distinct people.
Change in YES probability against an observation within one hour of 24h ago.
14 hourly changes in YES probability. Describes recent positioning, not outcome likelihood.
Standard deviation of daily changes; requires timestamp-aligned history.
panta-api · Tue, 10 Nov 2026 20:17:56 GMT
Will a new trader break into the top 3 of the Leaderboard of the NectarFi x Panta trading competition by the end of week 3?
Market issuer
Market resolution criteria
Sisera calculations · Tue, 10 Nov 2026 20:17:59 GMT
Observed market measures