NVDAx$174.58+3.04%CRCLx$67.53+4.39%SPYx$765.61+1.22%TSLAx$390.49+2.96%SPCXx$140.44-1.66%CHADx$10.01-0.50%DFDVx$3.30+1.92%GLDx$365.57-1.08%QQQx$692.63+2.12%METAx$631.63-2.00%MSTRx$123.05+1.28%GOOGLx$293.99+1.94%MSFTx$523.72-2.48%COINx$137.20+3.98%ANDURIL$141.87—ANTHROPIC$88.78—FIGUREAI$164.77—KALSHI$850.09—NEURALINK$374.11—OPENAI$1,164.32—
Secondary Phase · Graduated CLOB
Predictions · Crypto · breaking
CR
Will the Panta x NectarFi Trading Competition reach 150 total traders before it ends?
Closes Wed, 11 Nov 2026 23:59:00 GMT
Yes
49.8%
No
50.2%
Event intelligence
AI brief · cited evidenceThe market is open with a 49.8% probability and closes at 2026-11-11T23:59:00Z. Resolution depends on whether the competition dashboard's TRADERS metric displays 150 or higher at the exact moment the timer expires. Currently, the market shows only 3 trades and 3 wallets, with a last trade at 12:42:34Z, indicating very low activity. The best bid is 0.4485 and best ask is 0.5482, with a spread of 0.0997. Without access to the actual dashboard metric or historical trader growth data, the probability remains near 50%, but the low volume and activity suggest the threshold is unlikely to be reached.
What supports YES
- If the competition dashboard's TRADERS metric reaches 150 or higher at the exact moment the timer expires (2026-11-11T23:59:00Z), the market resolves YES. This would require a rapid increase in participation from the current observed 3 wallets/trades. The rules specify the metric must be displayed on the dashboard at the exact expiration moment, so any last-minute surge in traders before the timer ends would trigger a YES resolution.
What supports NO
The available evidence does not establish a case for this side.
What to watch
- Monitor the competition dashboard's TRADERS metric as the closing time approaches. The market closes in approximately 0.107 days (about 2.5 hours). Any significant increase in trader count or volume could shift the probability. The current best bid/ask spread of 0.0997 suggests moderate uncertainty, but with only 3 trades recorded, the market is illiquid and sensitive to small changes in perceived likelihood.
Research interpretation, not an independently calibrated forecast. Quotes, issuer criteria, and related reporting are separate evidence sources. Updated Wed, 11 Nov 2026 21:25:05 GMT.
Panta has no compatible probability history for this event yet. Momentum, RSI, and historical volatility remain unavailable.
Market structure & technical measures
Observed positioning and execution conditions. Missing history stays unavailable.
- Time to close
- 2.6h
- Market volume
- 5USD
- Market uncertainty
- 1/1
- YES / NO price sum
- 100¢
- Quoted spread
- 10¢
- Bid / ask depth imbalance
- -0.3%
- Recent trades sampled
- 3
Remaining time until trading closes, not necessarily final settlement.
Cumulative provider-reported volume, not 24-hour volume or available liquidity.
Binary entropy of the quoted YES price: 1 at 50/50 and 0 at 0/100. Not confidence in an outcome.
Indicative combined quote cost. Fees and execution slippage are excluded; this is not an arbitrage signal.
Best ask minus best bid. An order-book measure; unavailable for native bonding-curve markets.
Dollar depth within 5¢ of best prices. Positive means more resting bids; not a forecast.
Panta catalog tape, at most 200 trades. Not a full-day trade count.
Other outcomes in this event
Will the top 3 of the Leaderboard of the NectarFi x Panta trading competition be in the green by end of week 3?100.0%Will a new trader break into the top 3 of the Leaderboard of the NectarFi x Panta trading competition by the end of week 3?100.0%Will total trading volume in the Panta x NectarFi trading competition cross $200,000 by the end of week 2?100.0%Will NectarFi user zuby (@NzubeEzudo on X) crack the top 5 of the Leaderboard in the NectarFi x Panta trading competition at the end of week 1?100.0%Will exactly 4 traders cross the $100,000 threshold on the final volume leaderboard?50.7%Will raax finish on the PnL leader board with a positive percentage ?50.3%Will @PantaHQ publish a recap post with the final statistics (number of traders or total trading volume) of the Panta x NectarFi Trading Competition by November 20, 2026, 23:59 WAT?50.3%
How this market resolves
Resolve YES, if the "TRADERS" metric on the competition dashboard displays 150 or higher at the exact moment the competition timer expires. Else resolve NO.